Election insights: April polling
2nd April 2026
Following further polling from Beaufort Research (1st April), Grasshopper have input the data into their Senedd opinion polling probabilistic model in order to update their aggregated data.
Find out more about Grasshopper’s polling model and data analysis here
Dr Andy Cotter-Roberts, Head of Research & Insight, noted:
“Last time out we were seeing the Reform UK and Green vote stabilising. This continues to be the case.
“As before, the Labour vote is experiencing significant fluctuations.”
What would the Senedd look like?
Craig Lawton, Head of Corporate Affairs, said:
“Plaid and Reform are still out in front, but the real contest appears to be between Labour and the Greens now.”
“Both are in contention to win MSs in the double figures.”
“Whoever can do this could be the party most likely to help Plaid secure a majority in the Senedd.”
Key battlegrounds
Dr Cotter-Roberts added:
With the latest data now inputted, we have seen a slight change in the battleground constituencies.
“The Greens and Labour now appear to be going head to head for the sixth MS in three, seats, namely Clwyd, Gŵyr Abertawe, and Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr.
“Sir Fynwy Torfaen also now sees the Greens and the Lib Dems battling it out for the sixth seat.”
Why are all the polls different?
Craig Lawton noted:
“Whilst it is easy to compare every poll to the last, we need to remember that each is its own single snapshot, carried out by varying polling companies.”
“Despite this, we are seeing real patterns amongst all the polls, namely that Plaid and Reform will be the two biggest parties.”
“The Greens support appears to now have stabilised, ensuring they will win multiple seats.”
“With the Conservatives and Lib Dems set to either be wiped out or win very few seats, the big question will be whether Plaid have enough MSs to govern alone, or whether they will need to form a partnership in order to stop Reform.”
Grasshopper methodology
