Head of Public Affairs, Craig Lawton, takes a look at who could replace Vaughan Gething as First Minister. 18th July 2024

 

On Tuesday, just 188 days after becoming First Minister, Vaughan Gething announced his intention to step down from the role.

Much of his time in power has seen focus on his decisions over campaign donations and the sacking of a Minister from his Cabinet. Matter progressed further on Tuesday morning as four member of his government resigned: Lesley Griffiths, Mick Antoniw, Julie James, and previous leadership runner-up Jeremy Miles.

Gething will however remain as First Minister of Wales until a successor is found.

The next step is for the Executive Committee of Welsh Labour to agree a timetable for the election of a new leader of their party. This is expected to be confirmed shortly after they meet on Saturday 20th July.

 

Will there be a contest?

Leadership contests lead to media attention and scrutiny.

With the UK Labour Party sitting pretty in the polls off the back of a landslide General Election victory, it could be argued that now is far from the ideal time for Welsh Labour leadership hopefuls to start campaigning against each other.

When we add to this the fact that the Welsh Labour group of MSs is clearly fractured at this time, a single candidate that can unite Welsh Labour’s Senedd group and the party immediately could be the ideal solution.

If this is the case and the Welsh Labour Senedd group band behind one individual, we could see a very short campaign and a vote on a new First Minister as soon as the Senedd returns from summer recess on Tuesday 16th September.

However, if more than one person gets the required number of nominations, we can expect to see another contest stretching out across the summer and, potentially, in to the early autumn.

 

Who will put their name forward?

Coming second by such a small margin during the last campaign, Jeremy Miles would be within his rights to put his name forward once more.

In the short time that he held the Economy & Energy portfolio in Welsh Government he met with industry representatives and announced a new renewable energy strategy off the back of that, before this week launching Trydan Gwyrdd Cymru, a publicly-owned renewable energy developer for Wales.

However, is successful this time around, we could well see the fractures within the Welsh Labour group continue as the roles as reversed between him and Gething’s former backers.

Similarly, whilst mentioned previously as a potential leadership contender, recently sacked Minister Hannah Blythyn’s candidacy is likely to do little to help move on from the recent ill-feeling running through the group.

Two names that have been mentioned in recent hours are Eluned Morgan and Huw Irranca-Davies.

Both are said to be highly respected within the Welsh Labour Senedd group as well as across the Welsh Labour Party membership.

Whilst Huw Irranca-Davies has experience as a Welsh Government Minister, he also has something no other current Labour MS has- experience as a UK Government Minister from his time as both a Wales Office Minister and an Environment Minister between 2007 and 2010.

Despite choosing not to enter the Welsh Labour Leadership contest earlier this year, he has shown ambition for Wales’ top job before. He initially entered the contest to replace Carwyn Jones as First Minister back in 2018 before withdrawing in order to support Eluned Morgan’s attempt to get on the final ballot.

A short-term replacement to steady the ship until after the next election could be just the offer that Irranca-Davies feels comfortable with at this stage. However, some within the party will want to see longer term planning and ambition.

Similarly, Eluned Morgan served as a MEP for 15 years before entering the House of Lords in 2011. During this time she served as a Shadow Wales Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister as well as being a whip.

Morgan’s business leadership experience could also serve her well as she has led SWALEC’s business development work and chaired the Cardiff Business Partnership.

However, when the last leadership contest took place earlier this year, Morgan cited the heavy task of supporting the Welsh NHS in her role as Health Minister as her major reason for not entering. With that job far from over, it could be argued that this is once again not the right time for her.

There will likely be people once again suggesting Ken Skates should enter the race. However after choosing not to put his name forward at either of the last two contests and having also been a significant backer of Gething, he is unlikely to bring the group together this time.

Finally, there will also be some calling for Mark Drakeford to return to the role his left four months ago. Respected and experienced, he continues to have many of the attributes Welsh Labour arguably need at this time. However, he has already indicated his intent to step down at the next Senedd election and is also unlikely to wish to return to the job for a second term.

 

What happens next?

Expect potential candidates and their supporters to be holding meeting, making calls, and sending texts and WhatsApp messages over the coming days as they look to build their support.

Similarly, other potential candidates could find themselves being encouraged to stand by would-be supporters.

All should start to become clearer next week. Welsh Labour has confirmed that validly nominated candidates will be added to the party’s official website on Monday 22nd July.

Before too long we should at least know whether the summer will be filled with another Welsh Labour leadership contest or a coronation.